2019 Autumn - Disruptions in agricultural trade

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Farm Policy Journal: Vol 16 No 1 2019 Autumn - Full Journal - Disruptions in agricultural trade Australian Farm Institute (2019), Disruptions in agricultural trade, Farm Policy Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, Autumn 2019, Surry Hills, Australia. ISSN 1449–2210 (Print) ISSN 1449–8812 (Web) $60.50

FPJ1601B - Fischer, T (2019), Post-Brexit options for Australian agricultural trade FPJ1601B - Fischer, T (2019), Post-Brexit options for Australian agricultural trade, in Farm Policy Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2019, pp. 4-6, Surry Hills, Australia. In the current political zeitgeist, it seems almost impossible to predict what will happen next with the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). Brexit? No Brexit? Deferred Brexit? Yes Brexit! Even if there is a last-minute extension for the UK, Australian post-Brexit manoeuvres should focus on now building CANZUK (a political and economic union of Canada, Australia, New Zealand (NZ) and the UK) with the addition of Singapore, thus SCANZUK. This is an alliance worthy of early consideration. $12.10

FPJ1601C - Fell, J (2019), The future of Chinese agricultural policy FPJ1601C - Fell, J (2019), The future of Chinese agricultural policy, in Farm Policy Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2019, pp. 8-11, Surry Hills, Australia. China has announced major changes in its direction of agricultural policy. This report provides a qualitative assessment of the reforms, focussing on the 2017 announcements. The changes feature principally supply-side structural reform of Chinese agriculture. Reforms are also regulatory, with a major focus on food quality and safety rules. The outlook for Australia’s grain exports to China is mixed. However, the changes present new opportunities for Australian livestock product exporters and other countries are already exploiting the demand for improved livestock genetics. The growing demand from China for agricultural products is expected to remain a major influence on Australian agriculture regardless of policy changes. Based on the direction of China’s agricultural policies and Australia’s growth in trade with China, there are potential areas for greater focus to achieve outcomes that are in the interest of both countries. At present, agricultural cooperation in the areas of biosecurity, genetics, food safety and policy development appear the most promising. . $12.10

FPJ1601D - Every, M (2019), A ‘Great Deal’ of nonsense: why US-China trade numbers don’t add up FPJ1601D - Every, M (2019), A ‘Great Deal’ of nonsense: why US-China trade numbers don’t add up, in Farm Policy Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2019, pp. 12-16, Surry Hills, Australia. Markets have been taking a very optimistic view of ongoing United States (US)-China trade negotiations in early 2019. China has offered to increase imports from the US by US$1 trillion to eliminate the bilateral trade deficit by 2024. However, a serious look at the structure of US-China trade shows this purported deal cannot and will not be achieved. As such, the current calm in financial markets will not last either. There is much talk of a ‘Great Deal’, but logic, mathematics, and politics suggest this is a great deal of nonsense. $12.10

FPJ1601E - Heath, R (2019), China’s Belt and Road: a game changer for global trade FPJ1601E - Heath, R (2019), China’s Belt and Road: a game changer for global trade, in Farm Policy Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2019, pp. 18-26, Surry Hills, Australia. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an enormous program of infrastructure development and trade facilitation. It will have far-reaching consequences for not only Australia’s immediate region but also for a significant proportion of global trade. Australian agriculture is export dependent and the industry goal to grow to $100 billion farmgate output by 2030 will require export growth to be sustained and substantial. Understanding the implications of the BRI should therefore be of critical interest to Australian agricultural businesses, government and anyone with an interest in how the agriculture sector will grow. Transport infrastructure investments that are part of the BRI will provide a competitive advantage to countries other than Australia through efficient and new trade routes into China, and throughout Central Asia to Eastern Europe. Maritime trade routes will also link China with North Africa and Europe. While the trade routes will represent a threat to some of Australia’s agricultural trade, the investment made in this infrastructure will also stimulate economic growth and development. The associated increase in wealth and change in consumer purchasing habits will provide a massive opportunity for Australia to maintain and expand the agricultural exports that have been driving recent growth in Australian agricultural GVP (gross value of production). A continued focus on high-value agricultural exports seems warranted, however there are other countries with similar export targets (such as New Zealand and Chile) who have formalised their participation in the BRI. Trade facilitation and smoothing aspects of the BRI, such as the reduction of non-tariff trade barriers, may result in these countries having a competitive advantage over Australia. The BRI is promoted by the Chinese administration as a streamlined method to deepen commercial relationships with key Chinese enterprises and an access point for Chinese and emerging markets. In this context it is in Australian agricultural interests to be actively engaged with the BRI. $12.10

FPJ1601F - Caston, K & Weston, AM (2019), Australia: the next global hub for Agriculture 4.0 FPJ1601F - Caston, K & Weston, AM (2019), Australia: the next global hub for Agriculture 4.0, in Farm Policy Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2019, pp. 27-33, Surry Hills, Australia. The Australian agriculture and food sector is attracting new interest in its technology and innovation capability. Some of the new food supply chain technologies include biotechnology, smart farming, robotics, sensing technology, IoT connectivity, bio-security, food production and processing, traceability, provenance and food quality surveillance. These ‘Agriculture 4.0’ technologies enable the agriculture and food sector to become more profitable, efficient, safe, and sustainable – while meeting the changing demands of increasingly-savvy consumers. Agriculture 4.0 technologies will enable Australia to achieve ambitious agricultural production targets with flow-on export growth in agtech and foodtech products and services. Australia is a global leader in agricultural research and innovation. We offer international businesses many diverse partnership opportunities in breakthrough research and technology solutions that have strong commercialisation potential. The close working relationship between Australian farmers, food producers, research institutions and government is driving this innovation. Austrade is working with the entire ecosystem to build on this advantage, through its ‘Australia for Agriculture 4.0’ initiative. The collaboration aims to showcase Australia’s capability across the entire agriculture and food supply chain. The initiative will facilitate improved information flow, connections and collaborations to achieve uplift in agriculture and food trade and investment and ultimately, Australia’s economic growth. $12.10

FPJ1601G - Young, B (2019), The changing trade positions of the United States FPJ1601G - Young, B (2019), The changing trade positions of the United States, in Farm Policy Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2019, pp. 34-44, Surry Hills, Australia. Changes to United States (US) trade policy have prompted global concern over potential disruptive effects. For several decades, the US has played a leading role in promoting international trade. China, however, remains a major challenge in this new trade world. While the implications of market disruption associated with the Chinese market are clearly significant, the implications are not limited to China alone. Continued disagreements with the European Union as well as several other Asian nations still disrupt historical trade patterns. How those market shifts occur will impact the ways Australian agriculture may adjust, internally and internationally. The dispute with China is likely to confuse global agricultural markets for some time to come, and this confusion will create opportunities for Australian agriculture. While the overall grain and oilseed markets may provide some potential gains for Australia, bulk commodity production may not be the best utilisation of Australia’s agricultural focus. For example, trade agreements with Japan give the Australian livestock sector significant advantages over the US in pork and beef, and Australia will have access to the Vietnamese market the US lacks because of the withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Should the dispute between the US and China continue, Australia is probably best positioned to provide some of the higher-valued animal proteins – and should Australia establish supply chains with Chinese clients before the US works through these trade disputes, the long-term gains seem obvious. $12.10

FPJ1601H - Admassu, S (2019), The role of technology in improving food trade FPJ1601H - Admassu, S (2019), The role of technology in improving food trade, in Farm Policy Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2019, pp. 45-54, Surry Hills, Australia. The inefficiency of the traditional food supply chain (FSC) is causing significant revenue loss for Australian farm enterprises via both food loss and food fraud. This article evaluates available literature and data to assess the benefit of new FSC technologies to enhance Australian agricultural trade efficiency. The literature reveals the increasing cases of food fraud that damage the reputation of genuine producers – an issue Australian agriculture should focus on, to preserve the country’s good reputation for food quality and safety domestically and abroad which underpins successful trade relationships. The article argues that despite slow current adoption, FSC technologies such as blockchain have untapped potential to transform Australian agricultural trade by addressing food fraud, counterfeits and waste. $12.10

FPJ1601I - Kingwell, R (2019), Disruptive change in the international grain trade: implications for Australia FPJ1601I - Kingwell, R (2019), Disruptive change in the international grain trade: implications for Australia, in Farm Policy Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2019, pp. 55-62, Surry Hills, Australia. Disruption to the international trade of grain can advantage or disadvantage Australian grain businesses. Several examples of such disruptions are described in this article, such as climate variation, changes in government policies and technical innovation. However, the main disruption highlighted is the emergence of low-cost sources of grain exports. South America and the Black Sea region are increasingly major sources of grain exports, reducing the reach and market share of Australian grain exports and restricting grain price upsides. In under two decades these regions have emerged to be major sources of several international traded grains, including wheat. This paper outlines some potentially useful responses to the trade challenges caused by the emergence of these competitors. Six possible responses are discussed, ranging from farm-level responses to whole-of-industry coordinated responses. $12.10

FPJ1601J - Hutchinson, P (2019), Bumps on the road to opportunity for red meat sector FPJ1601J - Hutchinson, P (2019), Bumps on the road to opportunity for red meat sector; in Farm Policy Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2019, pp. 63-68, Surry Hills, Australia. The future for the Australian red meat industry is bright, but there’s work to be done in order to get there. Four of the main issues to address may be perceived either as challenges or opportunities: i.e. cost to operate; the global context; social pressures; and the chance for a major policy reset post-election. Australian meat processors are dealing with operating costs which are dramatically higher than their key global competitors, which adds up to intense and unrelenting competitive pressure right across the global supply chain. While social pressures are currently a greater issue in developed markets, activism will likely follow growth in developing markets and a critical eye will inevitably be cast on animal welfare. Policy consistency and coherence in these and other areas are required if our industry is going to be competitive and profitable. Australia needs to take a longer-term strategic view, away from the churn of the electoral cycle and populist views. Coming concerns or trends for the industry to watch include biosecurity, consumer preferences, and the agriculture sector’s contribution to climate disruption. With the global population expected to be almost 10 billion by 2050, how do we offer this growing population the diet they want and still do our part on climate change? $12.10