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When everybody says it's time to invest - does that mean its time to sell?

Mick Keogh - Monday, February 06, 2012

One of the tried and true adages of investment is that if everyone agrees that something is a sure bet, then the chances are that it's time to sell! Hopefully this adage will be proved wrong in the case of agriculture, which suddenly seems to be the hot tip as a good investment. Perhaps this is because a lot of other investment classes are looking pretty uncertain at present.

Emphasising the renewed interest in agriculture as an investment class, The Economist has this week run a big feature on the state of agriculture in the UK. Of particular note is the fact that farm land prices have jumped 14% in the UK over the past year, as investors look to land as a more secure investment than some other potential investments, and farmers who have experienced good returns over recent years use their extra cash (and equity) to buy more land. 

In a similar vein, The Sydney Morning Herald Business Section has run a major story on the renewed investor interest in Australian agriculture, as major investment funds channel both Australian and internal money into investment vehicles specialising in agricultural production and related assets.

 Based on available data, it is hard to see land prices in Australia moving upward to the extent seen in the UK. In fact, there are many in Australia who believe there is a lot of land that could potentially come onto the market in the next two years as banks tighten up their rural lending policies in the face of increases in the wholesale cost of funds. 

That said, all those Australian workers who have experienced a 30-50% or more drop in the value of their superannuation investments based on the costly recommendations of their 'advisors' must be wondering why those advisors have studiously ignored agriculture as an investment vehicle for the past decade - especially when the best performers in the agriculture sector have continued to post gains in excess of 10% per annum, while the share market has headed in the exact opposite direction. 

 
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